National farmland prices jumped 19.8% in 2022, led by Tasmania that saw median prices soar more than 50% last year.
New Rural Bank research found that farmland prices recorded growth of more than 15% across all states and territories for the first time in the past 28 years.
It was the ninth consecutive year that the national median price per hectare of Australian farmland increased, lifting the 20-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 8.5% and with the national median price rising by 167% at a CAGR of 11.5% over those nine years.
“Farmland values maintained strong growth momentum in 2022 as the national median price per hectare increased by 20% to $8,506 per hectare,” Rural Bank Head of Agribusiness Development, Andrew Smith said.
“The key drivers of farmland values are set to remain in favour of demand exceeding supply through 2023, driving a 10th consecutive year of growth in the national median price per hectare.”
Tasmania was the clear standout with a median price per hectare rise of 54.9%.
Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia all recorded growth of more than 20%, closely followed by Queensland and New South Wales with increases of 15.9% and 18.9% respectively.
“As an asset class, the exceptional growth rates seen in recent years have lifted the national 20-year CAGR to 8.5%, but factoring in the new level of interest rates, downturns in commodity prices and the potential for a drier finish to 2023, we see indicators pointing to farmland values reaching an inflection point,” Smith said.
“While growth in farmland values is still expected in 2023, this will likely be at a slower rate than the previous two years. Farmland transactions in 2022 equated to a total of 8.8 million hectares of land traded at a combined value of $11.7 billion.
“To put this market activity into perspective, the total number of hectares of Australian farmland sold in 2022 equates to an area similar in size to that of a European country, such as Hungary.”
Queensland
In Queensland, Rural Bank’s Leah Weekes said farmland values continued to reach new records in 2022, but growth slowed compared to 2021.
“Increased prices were aided by favourable seasonal conditions and strong commodity prices which continued to see a consolidation of smaller farms into medium sized operations,” Weekes said.
While Queensland has seen a lot of interstate migration from the urban and lifestyle segments, with cheaper land values than other states, we’ve also seen farmers from other states affected by natural disasters diversifying both their geographical and commodity operations.
“The slowdown in farmland value growth is expected to continue and may plateau in the coming year, but prices are unlikely to fall significantly as there is still interest even at these higher-than-average prices.”
New South Wales
In New South Wales, Rural Bank’s Nicole Killen said excellent seasonal conditions in New South Wales continued to fuel appetite for expansion from family farming enterprises.
“Good conditions also led to tighter supply of land on the market as potential sellers were encouraged to continue farming,” Killen said.
While wet conditions were beneficial for most areas, those affected by flooding saw a slowdown in both buying and selling activity.
Demand cooled off in recent months as higher interest rates and lower livestock prices reduced the number of buyers at auctions, likely resulting in lower growth in land values for 2023.
Victoria
Victoria’s farmland values continued to break records again in 2022 following a year of strong growth in 2021, according to Rural Bank’s Kathryn Davies.
“The slowdown in transactions numbers reflects buyer caution and deeper business consideration off the back of rising interest rates and input costs,” Davies said.
“With good growing conditions, an easing in some commodity prices from record highs and continued higher interest rates, purchasers are conducting deeper analysis to ensure that higher purchase prices don’t harm the overall returns that can be generated. This will likely lead to lower growth in property prices for 2023.”
Tasmania
Dean Lalor, of Rural Bank, said demand for Tasmanian farmland continued to outstrip supply in 2022 which drove prices to new heights.
“Commodity prices were buoyant for most of the year and supported by low, albeit increasing interest rates,” Lalor said.
“Confidence in the longer-term outlook for dairy is supporting demand from the state’s large dairy industry. Favourable seasonal conditions have also enabled expansion intentions, even as cattle prices have dropped off.”
Despite high input costs, increased interest rates and lower prices for some commodities, Lalor said there was still enough appetite to grow businesses which should see demand continue to outstrip supply.
South Australia
In South Australia, Rural Bank’s Neil Verringer said farmland remained highly sought after as favourable balance sheets continued to drive a substantial desire for expansion.
“Strong production prospects and high commodity prices ensured buyer sentiment remained positive amidst a rising rate environment,” Verringer said.
“The overall supply of land increased as farmers looked to cash in on the record high land values seen throughout the state, though this was more than offset by the considerable demand and strong competition for lots seen across most regions. Rising borrowing costs and softening commodity prices will likely weigh on demand in 2023, limiting growth prospects in comparison to the past year.”
Western Australia
Western Australian farmland prices continued their upward trajectory in 2022, marking the fifth consecutive year of gains and reaching unprecedented record levels, said Rural Bank’s Simon O’Leary.
“This remarkable performance underscores the sustained demand and robust investment potential in the region’s agricultural sector,” O’Leary said.
“Despite challenges such as high input costs, continued tightness in the labour market and rising interest rates, the market demonstrated resilience, showcasing the enduring appeal and strong investment value of Western Australian farmland.”
